FORUM DE DEFENSE ET DE STRATEGIE
Forging Northern Bonds: Strengthen the Canada-France Arctic Partnership in a Shifting Global Order
By Theo Urvoy and Andrew Erskine
January 27th 2025
Introduction
In just a few years, the Arctic has transformed from a preserved ‘exceptional space’ on the margins of global rivalries into an area of strategic competition. The acceleration of ice melt and the sometimes-misleading hope of new sea routes or untapped resources have revived interest in this region. But it is Russia’s remilitarisation, coupled with China’s growing assertiveness, that has forced NATO to reintegrate the Far North into its deterrence posture.
For Ottawa, the Arctic remains the pillar of national sovereignty in the face of hybrid threats and territorial claims by competitors; for Paris, a non-coastal but committed player, it is a laboratory for military projection, scientific cooperation, and the defence of lines of communication. The Alliance, for its part, is rethinking its doctrines: the Arctic is no longer a mere secondary front but a theatre where climate challenges, conventional threats, cyberattacks and sabotage of critical infrastructure intertwine.
This strategic note analyses, through a focus on NATO, Canada and France, the drivers, and limitations of Arctic deterrence strategies in response to Russia. The first step is to understand why the Arctic has become a crucial geosecurity space for the Alliance, identify the perceived threats and the actors responsible, and then question NATO’s ability to establish a functional and legitimate deterrent in the region. Finally, recommendations will be made to strengthen Franco-Canadian cooperation for the benefit of collective security and stability in the Far North.
This policy report, published by the Network for Strategic Analysis (RAS-NSA), is part of the Personnalités d'Avenir France Canada program on defense and diplomatic issues, 2025 edition, organized by the FDS and the France-Canada Association, with the support of the Department of National Defence of Canada’s Mobilizing Insights in Defence and Security (MINDS) program and the DGRIS (Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy, French Ministry of the Armed Forces).